Grains Report 10/22/19

UPDATE 1-China offers tariff-free quota for 10 mln T of U.S. soybean purchases – sources – Reuters News
22-Oct-2019 07:55:32 AM
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Releads, adds detail and comment
By Hallie Gu and Naveen Thukral
BEIJING/SINGAPORE, Oct 22 (Reuters) – China on Tuesday offered 10 million tonnes of tariff-free quota to major Chinese and international soybean crusher to import soybeans from the United States, according to two people briefed on the matter.
The quota to import U.S. soybeans was offered to state-owned crusher, privately owned crusher and major international trading houses with crushing plants in China at a meeting called by the state planner, said the sources who were briefed by people who attended.
No one at the state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, answered the phone after business hours.
The meeting comes after U.S President Donald Trump said China had agreed to buy up to $50 billion of U.S. farm products annually during trade talks earlier this month.
However in the week following the talks, China bought at least eight cargoes, or 480,000 tonnes worth $173 million, of Brazilian soybeans and steered clear of the U.S. market, traders told Reuters. (Full Story)
“Chinese buyers have been buying a lot of Brazilian soybeans. The government was sending a message to importers to be mindful of the big picture,” said one of the sources, referring to Beijing’s desire to show goodwill in the talks.
The Chicago Board of Trade’s most-active soybean contract Sv1 rose 1.15% to $9.44 a bushel by 1241 GMT on hopes China could buy more from the United States.
(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton in Beijing and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; editing by David Evans)
(( dominique.patton@thomsonreuters.com ; +86 10 5669 2121; Reuters Messaging: dominique.patton.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2019. Click For Restrictions – https://agency.reuters.com/en/copyright.html

China to release 10,000 T of frozen pork from its reserve
2019-09-26 www.cofeed.com
Chinese authorities will release 10,000 tonnes of frozen pork on 26th for a second time in September, before which the first 10,000 tonnes has been released on Sept. 19th, according to the website of China Merchandise Reserve Management Center. And according to a financial reporter from China.org.cn, China has made a dozen of attempts to stabilize hog production and pork prices recently, with 3 high-level meetings and 8 relative files in 10 days. Especially since this month, seven national ministries and authorities have in their files mentioned topics on hog production and pork prices for over 400 times.

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 21
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 17, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/17/2019 10/10/2019 10/18/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 49 8,625 4,086
CORN 531,744 480,647 1,036,251 3,038,063 7,957,651
FLAXSEED 0 100 0 172 194
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 798 1,294
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 20,980 38,825 10,773 249,156 133,114
SOYBEANS 1,296,352 955,150 1,217,883 6,458,308 6,022,508
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 565,099 497,468 386,961 10,063,391 8,220,684
Total 2,414,175 1,972,190 2,651,917 19,818,513 22,339,531
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 20-Oct 13-Oct 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 93 87 88 89
Cotton Harvested 40 32 38 35
Corn Mature 86 73 99 97
Corn Harvested 30 22 48 47
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 94 85 98 97
Soybeans Harvested 46 26 51 64
Sorghum Mature 92 81 88 89
Sorghum Harvested 49 40 45 53
Rice Harvested 93 87 90 94
Spring Wheat Harvested 96 94 100 100
Sugar beets Harvested 42 30 62 73
Sunflowers Harvested 9 5 18 27
Peanuts Harvested 67 55 54 55
Winter Wheat Planted 77 65 71 75
Winter Wheat Emerged 53 41 52 53

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 18 36 33 8
Cotton Last Week 4 17 41 30 8
Cotton Last Year 13 20 33 26 8

Corn This Week 4 10 30 45 11
Corn Last Week 4 11 30 44 11
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 48 20

Soybeans This Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 23 48 18

Sorghum This Week 1 7 28 50 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 6 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Year 6 12 29 43 10

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 18 30 36 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 10 18 29 35 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 7 13 30 42 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on what was called speculative profit taking. Trends are still generally up for Winter Wheat markets and are sideways for Spring Wheat. The move came despite continued reports of firm prices in the Black Sea and other locations around the world. Black Sea Wheat has been the lowest priced Wheat over the last few years and Russia has set the world price for quite a while. The fact that prices are moving higher there gives the rest of the world a chance to charge more. There are big problems with Wheat crops in Australia again this year due to the ongoing drought situation. Southern and western areas are most affected. The Bank of Australia estimated production as low as 15.5 million tons for the country. Australia can normally produce 21 or 22 million tons. There has been talk of adverse weather in Argentina, too, and some are talking about crop losses there. Meanwhile, the storms have moved out of the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains and left behind some damaged Wheat. The weather is improving now and the harvest should start to get finished up. The fact that no more damaging weather is coming caused some speculative selling and increased harvest activity in Canada caused some commercial selling. Planting of the US Winter Wheat crop is proceeding under generally good conditions. The overall trends are generally up and prices can work higher in the near term.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week after some big storm today. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly periods of light showers. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 538 December. Support is at 521, 515, and 511 December, with resistance at 535, 538, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 451 and 462 December. Support is at 417, 414, and 401 December, with resistance at 437, 439, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 534, 520, and 517 December. Support is at 536, 534, and 531 December, and resistance is at 545, 549, and 553 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as the US harvest starts to wind down. USDA showed that the harvest is just about complete in the south although there are still some fields to cut in Arkansas and Mississippi. There is also some second crop Rice left in Texas and Louisiana. Field yields appear to be generally below last year but still stronger than some analysts had expected. Milling quality is said to be lower on later harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. Prices paid are said to be about even with futures prices in Arkansas and are firm in other states as well. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage. Producers will hold out for higher prices as they feel that prices overall are too cheap. Export demand has been holding well and this gives hope for higher prices down the road. The best buyer has been Mexico but Central America has been buying in greater volumes as well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions after some big storms today. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1164, 1147, and 1139 November. Support is at 1173, 1162, and 1155 November, with resistance at 1183, 1190, and 1200 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats both closed lower. Oats saw some significant selling and it looked like speculative long were liquidating positions. USDA showed active harvest progress in its report last night. Crop condition showed slight improvement. The harvest is finally starting to get more active now that the weather has turned drier in the Midwest. It was a great weekend in the region with warmer temperatures and some sun to help dry soils and Corn. Farmers are concentrating mostly on harvesting Soybeans but there has been some Corn harvested as well. Yield reports seem stronger in the western Corn Belt than in the east, but there have been some variable reports in all areas. Many think that the best Corn is being harvested now and that yield reports will show less Corn as the harvest progresses. Some farmers say that this might not be the case and it will depend on individual situations. Some were able to get more fertilizers in the field for the second crop and this yields might be better. Demand remains hard to find and this was reflected in the USDA reports released on Friday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 378, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 397, and 399 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 283, 269, and 268 December. Support is at 284, 281, and 279 December, and resistance is at 293, 297, and 299 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower while Soybean Oil closed a little higher. Soybeans saw some additional selling pressure on ideas of expanding harvest activity and closed with small losses despite ideas of more Chinese buying of US Soybeans. The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn last week. Yield reports show that yields are generally better in western areas than to the east. China has pulled back from buying US agricultural products including pork and Soybeans. Ideas are they will continue to be very strong buyers of pork and beef but might not buy any grains or oilseeds here for a while. China said over the weekend that progress was being made in the trade talks with the US. The two sides hope to have a Phase One deal ready in November for signing at the G-7 meetings. There will be more meetings to find a more comprehensive deal that can be signed by both presidents. The market is also starting to keep a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 927, 924, and 919 November, and resistance is at 941, 945, and 950 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 315.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3120 December. Support is at 3020, 3000, and 2980 December, with resistance at 3070, 3110, and 3130 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of strong farm selling as the harvest continued. A higher Canadian Dollar was negative for Canola was well. Speculators were the best sellers. The reports indicate that over a third of the crop in the Prairies is still to be harvested. Palm Oil was higher despite worries that weaker export demand would continue. Soybean Oil was higher. The charts show that futures are turning trends up again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 444.00, 438.00, and 436.00 November. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 441.00 November, with resistance at 456.00, 459.00, and 461.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2310 January. Support is at 2260, 2230, and 2220 January, with resistance at 2320, 2340, and 2380 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Big sowers and storms today then chances for showers late this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +37 Dec +170 Dec +75 Dec +37 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +43 Dec +85 Dec +40 Nov
December +52 Dec +85 Dec +30 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 21
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, Oct. 21.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 424.01 -26.69 Nov 2019 dn 3.60
Track Thunder Bay 461.40 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.30
Track Vancouver 469.40 18.00 Nov 2019 dn 4.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 545.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 555.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 575.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 592.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 547.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 557.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 577.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 595.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 545.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 442.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,225.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 146.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1870)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 143,152 lots, or 4.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,370 3,370 3,370 0 0 278
Jan-20 3,436 3,438 3,401 3,428 3,423 3,418 -5 131,608 195,192
Mar-20 3,464 3,464 3,429 3,437 3,444 3,455 11 66 34
May-20 3,715 3,715 3,682 3,698 3,697 3,693 -4 10,950 69,058
Jul-20 3,734 3,734 3,734 3,734 3,724 3,734 10 2 34
Sep-20 3,777 3,778 3,756 3,770 3,768 3,764 -4 526 7,146
Corn
Turnover: 705,900 lots, or 13.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,810 1,818 1,809 1,814 1,809 1,812 3 5,710 16,972
Jan-20 1,848 1,858 1,847 1,855 1,852 1,853 1 560,132 1,266,660
Mar-20 1,875 1,882 1,875 1,882 1,875 1,878 3 32,760 331,030
May-20 1,921 1,930 1,921 1,927 1,923 1,925 2 88,298 562,010
Jul-20 1,946 1,953 1,946 1,952 1,949 1,950 1 382 8,262
Sep-20 1,971 1,977 1,971 1,974 1,972 1,974 2 18,618 72,244
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,432,642 lots, or 10.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,094 3,106 3,064 3,090 3,062 3,090 28 2,988 5,422
Dec-19 3,125 3,127 3,072 3,097 3,067 3,091 24 36,322 250,876
Jan-20 3,086 3,086 3,037 3,059 3,036 3,060 24 2,567,156 2,461,088
Mar-20 2,995 2,997 2,984 2,995 2,984 2,991 7 120 858
May-20 2,941 2,953 2,915 2,936 2,924 2,934 10 661,560 1,650,760
Jul-20 2,962 2,965 2,933 2,953 2,944 2,943 -1 1,596 3,286
Aug-20 2,956 2,956 2,944 2,944 2,946 2,951 5 6 58
Sep-20 3,005 3,006 2,962 2,994 2,979 2,989 10 162,894 388,312
Palm Oil
Turnover: 585,252 lots, or 28.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 4,880 4,880 4,880 4,880 4,780 4,880 100 2 0
Dec-19 – – – 4,856 4,758 4,856 98 0 6
Jan-20 4,860 4,860 4,812 4,846 4,862 4,838 -24 506,046 502,446
Feb-20 – – – 4,952 4,952 4,952 0 0 708
Mar-20 – – – 5,022 5,022 5,022 0 0 4
Apr-20 – – – 5,032 5,032 5,032 0 0 6
May-20 5,104 5,126 5,084 5,120 5,124 5,108 -16 75,908 202,694
Jun-20 – – – 5,138 5,138 5,138 0 0 6
Jul-20 5,156 5,156 5,156 5,156 5,152 5,156 4 2 602
Aug-20 – – – 5,118 5,118 5,118 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,144 5,156 5,114 5,116 5,168 5,122 -46 3,294 20,668
Oct-20 – – – 5,122 5,168 5,122 -46 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 513,820 lots, or 31.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 5,966 5,966 5,966 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 6,044 6,044 6,044 0 0 10
Jan-20 6,068 6,076 6,016 6,042 6,066 6,044 -22 398,612 697,180
Mar-20 – – – 6,106 6,106 6,106 0 0 698
May-20 6,058 6,070 6,024 6,056 6,074 6,044 -30 106,376 290,706
Jul-20 – – – 6,084 6,084 6,084 0 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 5,960 5,988 5,960 -28 0 0
Sep-20 6,104 6,112 6,060 6,082 6,116 6,084 -32 8,832 65,410
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.