Soybean Commentary - Just My Opinion

Informa suggests US soybean planted acres at 89.4 million acres vs. USDA at 89.0 million acres

NOPA April Crush 161.016 million bu. vs. 160.966 expected Soybean Oil Stocks 2.092 billion lbs. vs. 1.980 billion lbs. expected

Im told it was Brazilian selling that pressured the soybean market in the early going on Tuesday. International traders like to talk about how ugly the Argentine peso is; go take a look at the Brazilian real, it is doing its own sewer shot. The product markets dogged it on Tuesday due to the larger than expected NOPA crush. Their crush data suggests we have the supply (at least for the time being) to meet any new business coming the US way due to the Argentine shortfall. The short covering we saw late in the soybean market can be attributed to the tariff talks between the US and China that are scheduled for later this week.

The interior cash soybean market, like corn, has taken on a a mixed look. River locations are all over the place as some are lower vs. somebeing higher. Processors continue to show the best bids despite todays downturn in Board crush margins. The July Board crush lost 14 cents on the day and the August crush lost 11 cents on the day. I feel that is due to the NOPA data. Little change was noted in the soybean spreads. Not much change is being noted in the interior offers to sell cash meal. The export market for meal looks softer. Meal spreads gave back a good majority of what they gained on Monday.

Despite looking pretty ugly for the majority of the day (short covering late) the soybean and soybean meal markets honor recent lows. Until we see those lows taken out with conviction the bias will remain for higher prices. the near 2 week rally in bean oil is starting to look a bit shaky. $31.50 is suspected resistance for July and that was challenged on Monday and so far that resistance is proving true. I mentioned it yesterday if the bean and meal markets want to go higher the trade will lay off their longs against the bean oil market.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/16

July Soybeans: $10.09 - $10.26 ($10.33)

July Soybean Meal; $380.0 - $389.0

July Soybean Oil: $30.65 - $31.40

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