Supension of Disbelief

A little suspension of disbelief has to be applied to the words and actions of and by political entities in the US, Britain, France, Singapore, Lithuania, Venezuela......basically, everywhere! We can't make this stuff up! And price action is influenced by the influential...............We are closed on Monday and price action in grains on Tuesday might be influenced by agreements, weather and other unforeseen actions taken by the powers that be.............

We're still surviving without the statisticians and economists of the USDA..................Basis levels, receipts and shipments, freight rates, common sense and a basic understanding of botany and agronomy can get us through these dark times of the lack of government numbers....................

The next major futures event is deliveries against March contracts and there are only 26 trading days scheduled before we get to first notice day on February 28.............Trade talk has been leaning toward solid deliveries on corn and beans while wheat might be light.........There has been talk of increased farmer selling and movement before the roads get posted as it's never too early to prepare for plantings.................South American weather is anticipated to be conducive for harvest and a little damaging to yield potential in the later planted beans and corn.................

There are other sources than the USDA for market data and estimates and it appears that we'll be looking at the Argentine/Brazilian/European and other USDA equivalents for their opinions...............Of course, the private forecasters will use this shutdown/shakedown as an opportunity for making a name for themselves................Again, I am going to go out on a limb and say that it is unlikely that we will run out of corn and beans this crop year.....The wheat basis we tells us about the quality of the old crop but, it is unlikely that we run out of wheat, too! Stay calm! All is well!

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


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